What will happen after Mahathir Mohamad is sworn in as the first Pakatan Harapan prime minister?
I mean in the immediate period.
State government stalemates are resolved
Kedah and Perak are on paper in a stalemate. Pakatan is ahead in both, but BN plus PAS can seek to have unity governments, in Perak’s case they’d be over the 30 required. The difference being, BN the junior member in Kedah, and PAS assuming that role in Perak.
It is unlikely, with federal power missing, Kedah BN, the three assemblymen would want to be junior partners in an uncertain assembly. There is every chance the BN lads will cross party lines and join up with former MB Mukhriz Mahathir.
Perak is as ever, sticky. Pakatan has more seats, and unlike 2008 they all contested under one symbol, PKR, so the sultan must ask them to attempt a majority. Pakatan I believe will avoid going into marriage with PAS again. The eyes will be on Zambry Kadir and BN assemblymen. Because Putrajaya won’t be their party mates.
There is every chance, as soon as Mahathir is sworn-in, conversations will begin, and Pakatan will have a comfortable majority.
The quiet will be deafening.
No one would want to lead. Najib Razak is not built to move people without power.
They have no experience anywhere in that large building for the day after.
The longer they are undecided, the shaky the members and elected reps become. A manual has to be written now on what to do as the biggest opposition party in the country.
They will talk to the new PM.
They will maintain the no Semenanjung party deal, and PBB will likely walk out of BN, and the other Sarawak parties will follow suit into a Sarawak only coalition.
There are too many pieces in this one, but the dynamics of Borneo is set for a different trajectory.
The Anwar Game
It is now a matter of when.
And if he is pardoned and rushed to a by-election, and everything works out, will my old boss get sworn in as Mahathir’s replacement while Wan Azizah is deputy? Not likely, a husband and wife combination.
Wan Azizah will voluntarily step down, and that would open up a deputy prime minister position to Muhyiddin Yassin.
Lim Kit Siang as Dewan Rakyat Speaker. After decades of being sent off and told to shut up inside that hall, it would be poetic justice. Would he not treasure the moment when he tells the Pakatan reps to sush up and let Pekan speak?
Certain ministers: Nurul Izzah Anwar, Sivarasa Rasiah, Tony Pua and Rafizi Ramli (senator route).
Darrell Leiking will be the senior minister from Sabah, if Shafie remains chief minister. Probably a senior minister position, to reflect Warisan’s role. Defence Minister?
On the sunny side of things, Khazanah’s next chief won’t be Arul Kanda.